ASML says planned lithography output will fall short of customer forecasts

ASML said on October 14, 2026, that its currently planned output of low-NA EUV and DUV immersion lithography systems would not fully meet customers’ forecast demand in either 2027 or 2028. The company linked the higher forecasts primarily to customers’ expectations for the scale and duration of AI-related investment. Its statement compares future production plans with future customer demand; it does not establish a shortage of tools already ordered or due for delivery.

Capacity plans and demand

In July, ASML said it planned to raise 2027 capacity by 30% from a 2026 base of about 65 low-NA EUV systems and about 130 DUV immersion systems. It was investigating a further 30% increase for each category in 2028. That second increase was still a proposal, rather than completed capacity, in the company’s July results.

ASML now expects customer forecasts to exceed the output levels it had discussed for both years. Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen described the production plans on the October investor call, while Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet delivered the supply warning. ASML said it was investigating 2028 capacity beyond the increase previously discussed. It gave no figure for the projected gap between output and demand, so the disclosure cannot establish how many additional systems customers might request or receive.

Fouquet said ASML was increasingly receiving orders for 2028. Some customers had also expressed interest in placing orders for 2029 or 2030, according to the company’s prepared remarks. That interest does not count as an order. ASML also cautions that orders can be delayed, changed or canceled, leaving the eventual shipment schedule uncertain.

What the constraint could mean

Low-NA EUV and DUV immersion systems are the two tool categories covered by ASML’s warning. If customers carry out their forecast investment plans and ASML remains at its current output plan, the company will be unable to supply every requested addition in those categories during 2027 and 2028. The disclosed figures do not allow a calculation of the resulting effect on chip production or AI-compute supply. They also do not show how demand is divided between the two years or the two categories.

ASML identified ways to add wafer-processing capacity beyond shipping more systems: upgrades to installed tools and higher-throughput new models. Its planned NXE:3800F is specified to process 260 wafers per hour, compared with 230 for the NXE:3800E. ASML expects the newer model in only small quantities at the start of 2027, according to its investor-call remarks. The company has not quantified how much these measures could offset demand for additional systems.

Results and remaining uncertainty

ASML reported third-quarter net sales of €11.662 billion, a 57.5% gross margin and €4.960 billion in net income. It forecast full-year 2026 sales of €44 billion–€45 billion, raising the lower end of its July forecast from €43 billion. Those results and the revised annual range provide financial context for the warning; they do not quantify the forecast equipment gap.

The remaining questions concern how many systems customers ultimately order, whether ASML and its suppliers can expand 2028 output, and when ordered tools enter productive use. Changes in customers’ AI-related investment plans could also change the demand forecasts underlying ASML’s comparison.