Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula advance to Brazil’s presidential runoff

First-round result

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil’s October 4 presidential first round. Neither won a majority of valid votes, so the two candidates will meet in a runoff on October 25.

With 99.99% of ballot boxes counted, the Superior Electoral Court reported on October 5 that Bolsonaro had 56,104,268 votes, or 47.03% of valid votes. Lula had 53,876,617, or 45.16%. Bolsonaro’s lead in that count was 2,227,651 votes. The figures were a snapshot taken before every ballot box had been counted.

Bolsonaro is a Liberal Party senator from Rio de Janeiro and the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Lula is the incumbent and the Workers’ Party candidate. Their running mates are Alfredo Gaspar and Geraldo Alckmin, respectively.

Votes available in the runoff

The first-round lead establishes the runoff matchup but does not decide the presidency. Other candidates collectively received about 9 million votes, according to the Associated Press. How those voters choose between Bolsonaro and Lula, and whether turnout changes, could determine the result.

Former presidential candidate Ronaldo Caiado, who received 2.18% of valid first-round votes, agreed on October 6 to support Bolsonaro. Caiado’s endorsement gives Bolsonaro the backing of an eliminated candidate, but it does not establish how Caiado’s voters will vote on October 25.

Caiado’s party, the PSD, said separately that its state organizations could choose their own runoff positions. Caiado’s decision therefore does not amount to a single position for the party across Brazil.

Legislative and foreign-policy stakes

The Liberal Party also gained ground in the Senate election held on October 4. It elected 19 senators and is projected to hold 28 of the chamber’s 81 seats when the new legislature begins in 2027. That would make it the largest single-party bloc, without enough seats to pass legislation alone.

The presidential runoff will determine who directs Brazil’s executive branch, including its approach to Washington and Beijing. AP describes Bolsonaro as aligned with U.S. President Donald Trump and Lula as having strengthened ties with Beijing. The vote has yet to establish what either candidate would do in office or whether relations with either country would change.

Results-display interruption

A roughly 50-minute interruption in the electoral court’s national results display on October 4 prompted an allegation of vote-counting fraud. The court said the interruption affected publication of national figures, not vote tabulation, and that it was investigating the technical failure. The fraud allegation is unsubstantiated.