Hormuz oil and LNG flows remain far below prewar levels after six months of war

Energy flows remain constrained

The U.S.-Israel war with Iran reached six months on August 28, after the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28. The conflict has sharply reduced energy movements through the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated total Hormuz oil flows averaged 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 21.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025. The 16.7 million-barrel-per-day gap represents oil movements that required production shut-ins, inventory withdrawals, pipeline diversions or replacement supply.

Crude and condensate flows through the strait fell to 3.7 million barrels per day from 15.9 million barrels per day over the same period. Hormuz LNG flows fell from 10.5 billion cubic feet per day to 0.8 billion cubic feet per day, constraining Qatar-centered exports to seaborne buyers.

Saudi and UAE bypass pipelines provide about 4.7 million barrels per day of combined capacity, according to EIA. That capacity is below the prewar volume of oil and petroleum products moving through Hormuz.

Tanker security remains uncertain

The UK Maritime Trade Operations office said on August 27 that local authorities reported an oil tanker was struck by an unknown projectile on August 25 in waters between Oman and Iran. The vessel caught fire, while its crew was reported safe and no environmental damage was reported, according to the Associated Press.

The tanker’s name, flag, cargo, ownership and extent of damage have not been publicly established. No actor has been credibly identified as responsible for the strike.

Lloyd’s List Intelligence recorded a 50% week-over-week increase in oil and gas carrier traffic through Hormuz during the latest reported week, AP reported. The report did not provide an underlying vessel count, and higher traffic does not establish that routes are secure.

Current volume estimates differ. The U.S. government has said flows reached as much as 9 million barrels per day during short periods, while ING called that figure aggressive and cited ship-tracking estimates of roughly 2 million to 6 million barrels per day.

Clearance efforts and regional talks

Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said on August 25 that Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi discussed Oman-Iran talks on a temporary shipping corridor and joint mine clearance. The ministry statement did not disclose operating rules, security guarantees, inspection arrangements or an implementation date.

Al Thani visited Tehran on August 27 and met Araghchi, President Masoud Pezeshkian and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf. Qatar emphasized freedom of navigation and regional de-escalation.

U.S. Central Command began mine-clearance operations on April 11 using the destroyers USS *Frank E. Petersen Jr.* and USS *Michael Murphy*, underwater drones and other forces. CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper said on August 27 that international shipping lanes had been cleared of mines, a claim that had not been independently verified when AP reported it.

Hormuz disruptions contributed to Brent futures reaching $118 per barrel on April 29, EIA reported. EIA also linked higher prices to China’s crude imports falling to 8.1 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 32% below the previous quarter.