Hormuz Traffic Remains Depressed as Iran and Oman Propose Temporary Corridor

Traffic remains far below prewar levels

The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to normal commercial traffic six months after the conflict began on February 28. EIA data show oil flows through the waterway fell from 21.6 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 4.9 million barrels a day in the second quarter of 2026. LNG flows fell from 10.5 billion cubic feet a day to 0.8 billion.

Ship-tracking data cited by Reuters showed that two commodity tankers crossed the Strait on August 24, compared with a 10-day average of 14. Provisional oil flows were about 5 million barrels a day, while the seven-day average through August 23 was 6 million to 7 million barrels a day. AIS-based estimates can omit vessels operating with transponders disabled, so daily totals vary among providers.

A tanker strike underscores the continuing security risk. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported that an oil tanker was hit by an unidentified projectile between Oman and Iran on August 25, causing a fire. The crew was safe and no pollution was reported. No attacker immediately claimed responsibility, so attribution remains unproven.

Proposed corridor has not become an operating agreement

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi met in Tehran on August 25 and issued a joint statement describing a proposed phased framework. It includes a temporary joint navigational corridor, joint mine clearance, and technical negotiations on permanent routing, traffic management, information sharing and maritime-security services, according to the Associated Press.

The communiqué described a proposal and further negotiations, not a final operational agreement. Its start date, coordinates, enforcement rules, duration, mine-clearance verification and acceptance by insurers and shipowners remain uncertain.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said inbound commercial traffic would use Iranian waters and outbound traffic would use Iranian and Omani waters. He said negotiations on permanent arrangements could take 30 to 60 days and that military vessels would remain excluded. Those details were Iranian statements and were not all included in the bilateral communiqué.

The proposed exclusion of military vessels could conflict with the IMO Council's position that ships should receive nondiscriminatory, unimpeded passage through the internationally recognized traffic scheme without tolls. Whether Iran would require permission, inspections or fees is unresolved.

Regional diplomacy and economic exposure

Pakistan's Field Marshal Asim Munir visited Tehran on August 24 and discussed reopening Hormuz, preventing escalation and reviving the June U.S.-Iran memorandum with Iranian officials. Pakistan's Foreign Ministry said on August 27 that Munir was not acting as a U.S. envoy. Qatar was also due in Tehran on August 27 and has said it supports freedom of navigation under international law and restoration of the Strait's pre-February 28 navigation regime.

The practical stakes extend beyond shipping schedules. Before the conflict, Hormuz carried about 20% of global petroleum consumption and more than 20% of global LNG trade. Saudi and Emirati pipelines can bypass about 4.7 million barrels a day, leaving them unable to replace normal Strait volumes during a sustained disruption.

The International Maritime Organization had recorded 68 confirmed regional maritime incidents and 19 seafarer deaths through August 21. UN Trade and Development reports that the disruption has raised energy, transport, logistics and production costs, adding to inflation and external-financing pressure, particularly in fuel-importing developing economies.