Houthi advance near Bab el-Mandeb raises shipping risk

Coastal gains

Houthi forces gained control of Mokha, about 75 kilometers from the Bab el-Mandeb strait, UN Yemen envoy Hans Grundberg told the Security Council on September 10. He said fighting remained fluid. At a September 15 briefing, a UN official said the Houthis had reportedly captured several southern Red Sea islands. Control of the islands, and whether the Houthis retain all their coastal positions, remains uncertain.

The gains bring Houthi positions closer to the route connecting the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. They increase the group’s ability to threaten vessels using Bab el-Mandeb. They do not establish that commercial traffic through the strait has stopped: the September 15 UN briefing said maritime tracking showed commercial Red Sea flows appearing unaffected at that point.

Shipping and oil exports

Bab el-Mandeb carries substantial oil traffic, although volumes had fallen before this offensive. The US Energy Information Administration estimated that 4.2 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum products passed through the strait in the first half of 2025, compared with 9.3 million in 2023. Those figures describe historical flows; they do not measure traffic after the September 2026 gains.

Shipping disruption also preceded the territorial change. In its September outlook, the EIA said attacks affecting the Bab el-Mandeb route had reduced departures from Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port. Saudi Arabia had increased use of the longer Suez route for Asian customers. Available reporting does not establish how much additional disruption, if any, followed the capture of Mokha. The effect of the land gains on subsequent vessel transits, insurance costs and oil exports remains unclear.

A Houthi-run maritime body said navigation was safe for vessels other than Saudi ships. That assurance has not been independently verified; attacks and threats against commercial shipping have also been reported.

Diplomacy and civilian toll

Grundberg said on September 29 that he had met Houthi chief negotiator Mohammed Abdul-Salam in Muscat over the preceding weekend and held talks in Riyadh to seek a way to contain the fighting. His account of the meetings described exploratory diplomacy, with no agreement announced. The UN-brokered truce formally expired in October 2022; the renewed large-scale fighting followed a period of relative calm.

The World Health Organization said on September 29 that Aden’s Ministry of Health had recorded 4,481 casualties, including 838 deaths, since August 6. The figures exclude Houthi-controlled areas, so they do not represent a complete toll. The same briefing cited an International Organization for Migration estimate of approximately 145,000 internally displaced people as of September 28, while WHO cited 180,000 across 10 governorates. The agencies described differences in their sources, coverage and time frames.

WHO also said more than 3,600 Yemenis had reached Djibouti since September 10. The casualties and movement of people add immediate demands on health services and assistance as Grundberg pursues talks.