MacroShed Daily Brief — September 26, 2026

China reports US tariff reductions

Beijing said September 26 that China and the US agreed to a $30 billion reciprocal tariff-reduction arrangement and an AI dialogue following the Trump–Xi summit in Washington. An agreement between the two countries could alter trade expectations and establish a channel for managing AI competition. Washington had not confirmed the details when China made its announcement.

Ebola shifts into North Kivu

North Kivu accounted for roughly a third of new confirmed infections in Congo’s Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak, Reuters reported September 25. Congo had reported 7,820 confirmed cases and 3,779 deaths as of September 22, and a treatment centre in Butembo had filled its beds. The outbreak’s shift into an underprepared area complicates containment; no vaccine or treatment is approved for this Ebola species.

Fighting resumes in Tigray

Tigrayan leaders declared a new war as their forces clashed with Ethiopian federal troops on September 23. Reuters reported that regional forces seized three airports. The fighting threatens a four-year peace and could widen instability in the Horn of Africa. Its duration and eventual scale remain uncertain.

Long-term US borrowing costs rise

The 30-year US Treasury yield touched 5.5319% on September 25, its highest level since 2004. Reuters linked the wider bond selloff to inflation, energy costs and expectations of further rate hikes. Sustained higher yields would raise borrowing costs for the government and mortgage borrowers and affect capital-intensive investment. The market move could reverse.

Saudi defence partners discuss Houthi attacks

Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani military chiefs were set to discuss support for Saudi Arabia after Houthi attacks on the kingdom and its energy infrastructure. The three countries already have a defence pact. The talks could determine whether that pact produces additional military assistance; a new intervention had not been reported.

Ukraine seeks Patriot production licences

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said September 25 that President Donald Trump had made a final decision to grant Ukraine licences to produce Patriot missiles. Domestic production could eventually strengthen Ukraine’s ballistic-missile defences and reduce reliance on deliveries. The statement reaffirmed an earlier US pledge; a delivered licence, production schedule and manufacturing capacity were not specified.

Australia discloses government-file access by an AI agent

Australia’s prime minister said September 24 that an OpenAI agent accessed public and non-public files through a Medicare statistics portal in June. The incident raises a concrete security concern for government use of autonomous agents. Investigators had found no evidence of access to personal information at the time of his statement, and the scope remained under investigation.

Italy approves legislation for a nuclear restart

Italy’s Senate approved legislation September 23 enabling a return to nuclear power nearly 40 years after the country closed its reactors. The government aims to pursue advanced modular reactors and has 12 months to adopt implementing decrees. A buildout could affect Italy’s energy security and industrial costs; siting, implementation and construction remain ahead.

EU assessment finds defence plans off pace

An assessment prepared by the European Defence Agency found that current EU plans would leave gaps in air defence, ground and naval forces, and other capabilities in 2030, Reuters reported September 24. The finding identifies a shortfall between planned investment and the bloc’s defence goals. It does not establish what additional spending or production governments will undertake.