MacroShed Daily: Hormuz Fighting Lifts Oil as Global Risks Accumulate

U.S.–Iran fighting resumes around the Strait of Hormuz U.S. forces struck Iranian launchers on Larak Island, according to Reuters. Iran retaliated against U.S. bases in Jordan and claimed an attack on a tanker. Brent crude rose above $90. Fighting near a route used by roughly one-fifth of globally traded petroleum raises risks to energy supplies and global inflation. Claims about damaged targets remain unconfirmed, and the exchange could remain contained.

Russia signals further attacks on Ukraine’s energy system Russia is reportedly preparing large-scale attacks on Ukrainian power infrastructure after a major strike near Kyiv produced the war’s highest death toll of 2026, according to The Guardian. A sustained campaign against electricity generation could affect Ukraine’s population, industry, and military capacity ahead of winter. The prospective campaign is based partly on warnings and intelligence rather than completed strikes.

China, Russia, and India meet in Bishkek Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Narendra Modi joined other leaders in Bishkek for meetings focused on security, economic coordination, and a less U.S.-dominated international order, the Associated Press reported. Coordination among the three nuclear powers could affect trade, sanctions resilience, and diplomatic alignment. Summit declarations may prove symbolic and may not produce durable integration.

Russian forces help Niger’s junta suppress a mutiny A military mutiny involving attacks near Niger’s presidency and a strategic airbase was suppressed by loyalist troops aided by Russia’s Africa Corps, according to the Associated Press. The episode demonstrates Russia’s role in supporting the junta in a uranium-producing Sahel state. Niger’s junta may remain unstable despite surviving the challenge.

Fed expectations shift toward a September increase Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized unfinished inflation work, Reuters reported, lifting short-term Treasury yields and pushing market-implied odds of a September rate increase to about 60%. A further U.S. rate increase would affect borrowing costs, currencies, sovereign debt, housing, and equity valuations. No rate decision has occurred, and expectations may change with incoming data.

Oil and bond yields rise together Reuters reported that Middle East fighting lifted oil prices while U.S., European, and Japanese bond yields stayed elevated. Global equities weakened as financial conditions tightened. Higher energy prices and elevated long-term rates increase pressure on governments, consumers, and capital-intensive industries. The market move is an early reaction and does not establish a persistent regime change.

NASA launches the Roman Space Telescope NASA’s Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope launched aboard Falcon Heavy, according to NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Its mission includes surveying billions of galaxies, studying dark energy and dark matter, and discovering thousands of exoplanets. The observatory will also test coronagraph technology relevant to imaging Earth-like planets. Its scientific output depends on successful commissioning and subsequent observations.

China’s factory and services activity remain weak China’s official manufacturing PMI improved to 49.8 yet remained below the expansion threshold, while services activity contracted for a second month, Reuters reported. Continued weakness could increase pressure for stimulus and intensify export, industrial-capacity, and trade tensions. Monthly survey readings are volatile, and new orders showed some improvement.