Renewed Gulf and Red Sea Attacks Push Brent Above $108

Brent crude briefly exceeded $108 a barrel on September 11 after settling at $101.21 on September 9, according to the Associated Press. It subsequently traded near $104.09, compared with about $72 immediately before the war began on February 28.

Maritime escalation

U.S. Central Command said it destroyed five IRGC-linked crude carriers on September 8 after Iran twice launched ballistic missiles at a U.S. warship. CENTCOM said the ship evaded the missiles and no U.S. personnel were harmed; it had destroyed three other Iranian carriers on September 5. Iran said it had tested a newer missile capability against the ship, while AP reported it was unclear whether that weapon was used. CENTCOM’s account is an official U.S. statement.

The renewed exchange occurred as non-Iranian oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz had recovered from 300,000 barrels a day at the war’s low point to 8.4 million barrels a day in September, according to Kpler analyst Homayoun Falakshahi. That figure reaches 10.8 million barrels a day when alternative routes are included. It remains below the 21.6 million barrels a day that passed through Hormuz in the fourth quarter of 2025, before the war, and above the 4.9 million barrels a day estimated by the EIA for the second quarter of 2026.

Iranian exports moved in the opposite direction. Falakshahi estimated they fell from 1.85 million barrels a day in the spring to about 255,000 barrels a day in August, AP reported. The recovery in other exports depends on U.S. military protection. CENTCOM reported more than 50,000 U.S. service members operating across the Middle East on September 1.

Saudi and Red Sea exposure

Houthi attacks struck Saudi cities including Abha, Jazan, Najran and Khamis Mushait on September 8. Saudi authorities reported 73 people wounded, fires at oil facilities and utilities, and temporary operational suspensions. The affected southern region includes the 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery. Saudi reporting confirms the impacts and casualties, while the number of missiles and drones launched remains unverified.

Houthi forces captured Mokha on September 10, roughly 80 kilometers from Bab el-Mandeb, according to AP. About 12% of world goods normally transit the strait. The EIA estimated oil flows through Bab el-Mandeb rose from 5.4 million barrels a day in late 2025 to 8.1 million in the second quarter of 2026 as Saudi Arabia redirected exports through its East-West pipeline and Yanbu.

The pressure on both routes increases the shipping and insurance risk attached to Gulf oil and refined-fuel movements. It also limits the protection provided by Saudi rerouting, because redirected barrels must pass through Bab el-Mandeb.

Fuel, food and supply risks

Higher crude prices and tight diesel supplies can raise transport, farming and manufacturing costs. The EIA’s September 9 outlook projected U.S. distillate inventories below 100 million barrels in September and below their five-year range through 2026 and most of 2027. This creates a direct exposure to diesel prices for freight and agricultural users.

Hormuz disruption also affects fertilizer trade. The IMF estimates roughly one-third of internationally shipped fertilizer normally passes through the strait, linking prolonged disruption to crop costs and food-security risks. Current flow estimates carry uncertainty because tanker-tracking and AIS data have been especially unreliable since late February, the EIA said. The durability of Hormuz exports and any sustained obstruction at Bab el-Mandeb remain unestablished.