Saudi Arabia weighs offensive against Houthis near Bab el-Mandeb

Saudi Arabia is preparing a Yemeni-led offensive backed by Saudi airstrikes to reverse Houthi gains near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Reuters reported on October 2. A separate Axios report, citing U.S. officials, said Saudi leaders had approved plans. As of October 3, neither report established that the offensive had begun.

The reported plans

Six people familiar with the preparations told Reuters that Saudi Arabia was considering two options: an operation focused on Bab el-Mandeb or a wider campaign involving Al-Bayda, Marib, Taiz and Al-Jawf. Saudi-directed Yemeni ground forces would receive Saudi air support, according to those accounts. The choice between the options remains unconfirmed.

Axios reported that two U.S. officials expected a counteroffensive in the coming days. One said Saudi leaders had approved plans several days earlier. Riyadh has not publicly confirmed that approval. Reuters’ sources gave a wider range of possible start dates, from within a week of October 2 to after the U.S. midterm elections in early November. Reuters said spokespeople for the Saudi and Yemeni governments, the Houthis and the U.S. military did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the plans.

The size of any ground force is also uncertain. Reuters’ estimate that more than 100,000 Yemeni troops could be mobilized describes potential capacity, not a verified deployment. Reuters said allies were not expected to join the planned ground combat.

Territory and shipping

In a September 10 Security Council briefing, U.N. Yemen envoy Hans Grundberg said the Houthis had taken Mokha, about 75 kilometers from Bab el-Mandeb. He described the fighting as fluid. Their presence at Mokha places them near the strait’s approaches; it does not establish that they physically control the entire waterway.

The maritime disruption has already affected Saudi oil shipments. In its September Short-Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said attacks on Saudi exports through Bab el-Mandeb had constrained shipments from Yanbu. It estimated that August exports from Yanbu were about half their July level. Saudi Arabia increased shipments through the Suez Canal, which the agency described as a longer, costlier route to Asian customers.

An operation near Mokha would contest territory beside the Red Sea’s southern shipping passage. Retaking territory would not by itself establish safe transit: that would also depend on whether the Houthis retained the ability to attack ships. Continued fighting could prolong export diversions and transport costs.

Risks of a wider campaign

The reported multi-front option would bring additional areas of Yemen into the campaign. Existing violence has already produced substantial casualties and displacement. At a September 29 U.N. briefing, the World Health Organization cited Aden health-ministry data recording 4,481 casualties, including 838 deaths, since August 6. Agencies cited differing displacement estimates at the same briefing.

Whether Saudi Arabia launches an offensive, which option it chooses and whether either would improve shipping security remain unresolved. The reports also leave the readiness of participating Yemeni forces and the extent of direct foreign involvement unclear.