Saudi Pipeline Shutdown Adds Pressure to Arabian Oil Export Routes

East-West pipeline remains shut

Saudi Arabia temporarily shut its East-West oil pipeline after a September 10 drone attack, Reuters reported. The 1,200-kilometer line runs from eastern Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea port of Yanbu and had recently carried about 4 million to 5 million barrels per day, equal to roughly 4% to 5% of global supply.

Saudi Arabia had not announced a restart date by September 15. Two regional officials told the Associated Press that major repairs could take three to five weeks, although partial operation may be possible during repairs.

A prolonged outage could remove or delay up to roughly 4% of global oil supply if Yanbu’s stored crude is depleted and partial pipeline operations do not offset the disruption. Reuters market sources estimated on September 13 that Yanbu inventories could sustain exports for five to seven days, though the available inventory volume remains unclear.

Saudi exports face reduced flexibility because the pipeline provides a route around the Strait of Hormuz. If passage south through Bab al-Mandab is unsafe, Saudi cargoes bound for Asia could require longer routes north through Suez and around Africa, increasing freight and marine-insurance costs.

Houthi advances raise Red Sea risks

Four Yemeni government sources told Reuters that Houthi forces captured Perim, also known as Mayun, within Bab al-Mandab on September 11. AP subsequently reported Houthi seizures of Mokha and the Greater and Lesser Hanish islands, citing Yemeni government and Houthi officials.

The Houthis said they launched dozens of missiles and drones against King Khalid airbase at Khamis Mushait on September 14. Saudi authorities issued alerts in four southern cities, and the Saudi-led coalition reported 13 civilian injuries. The Houthis’ account of damage to hangars, radar, runways and ammunition depots has not been independently verified.

The territorial gains give Houthi forces positions near Red Sea shipping lanes and greater capacity to monitor or attack traffic. They do not establish effective Houthi control of navigation through Bab al-Mandab. Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree said non-Saudi shipping remained permitted.

Hormuz talks and market effects

Oman postponed a September 14 meeting involving Iran and regional states on managing or reopening Hormuz. Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi said the delay was “in the interests of consensus.” Iran said regional requests caused the postponement and later specifically blamed Saudi Arabia; AP reported Saudi amendments and concerns.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated that Hormuz carried 20.9 million barrels per day in the first half of 2025, about 20% of global petroleum consumption. Bab al-Mandab carried 4.2 million barrels per day over the same period.

The International Energy Agency reported on September 11 that Saudi crude production fell from 8.24 million barrels per day in July to 5.97 million in August. It estimated that observed global inventories had fallen by 507 million barrels since the war began.

Crude prices rose more than 4% intraday on September 14 before ending about 1% higher, Reuters reported. AP reported Brent above $105 and later near $109 during the pipeline disruption.

Attribution remains unresolved

Saudi Arabia blamed Iran-backed militias operating from Iraq for the pipeline attack, while no group immediately claimed responsibility. An umbrella organization of Iran-backed Iraqi militias denied involvement. Iran acknowledges the Houthis as an ally and denies directing their military operations.

These unresolved claims leave the extent of Iranian authorization and Iraqi operational involvement unclear. They also limit assessment of whether the attacks represent intermittent disruption or a sustained attempt to block Saudi export routes.