Saudi Pipeline Shutdown Adds Pressure to Gulf Oil Export Routes

Pipeline shutdown and Iraqi investigation

Saudi Arabia shut the East-West Pipeline as a precaution after multiple drone attacks on the morning of September 10, according to the Saudi Energy Ministry. The Saudi Foreign Ministry reported damage and unspecified injuries in the Riyadh and Medina regions.

Saudi Arabia said several drones were launched from Iraqi territory and temporarily withheld retaliation at Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s request. Iraqi authorities subsequently determined that the launches originated in Maysan province, dismissed the province’s operations commander and opened an investigation. Neither government had publicly identified a responsible organization by September 13, while the Islamic Resistance in Iraq denied involvement.

A constrained bypass route

The East-West system links Abqaiq to Yanbu on the Red Sea across about 1,200 kilometers. Its two lines have design capacity of 5 million barrels per day. Saudi Aramco reported expanding capacity to 7 million barrels per day in March 2025, though the International Energy Agency said sustained operation at that level has not been demonstrated.

The shutdown affects one of the few large routes available to move Gulf crude around the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, Hormuz carried nearly 20 million barrels per day, or about 25% of global seaborne oil trade, according to the IEA. Saudi and UAE pipelines offered an estimated 3.5 million to 5.5 million barrels per day of spare bypass export capacity.

The IEA estimated Gulf oil exports at about 13 million barrels per day in September, nearly half prewar levels. Global observed oil inventories had fallen by 507 million barrels since February, and Brent reached $113.48 per barrel on September 9. The agency also reported Gulf diesel and gasoil exports of 390,000 barrels per day in August, slightly more than one-quarter of prewar levels.

Houthi positions near Bab al-Mandab

Houthi forces captured Mokha on September 10 and reached or captured Dhubab and Mayun, also called Perim, on September 11, according to Reuters reporting. Mayun sits inside the Bab al-Mandab Strait and separates its two navigational channels. Commercial vessels continued to transit the waterway, so the territorial gains do not establish a verified general closure of the strait.

The Houthis said non-Saudi vessels could navigate safely while maintaining a blockade of Saudi-linked shipping. Their spokesman Yahya Saree said the group would continue “blockade for blockade” escalation. Shipping through Bab al-Mandab was already about 60% below pre-attack levels, based on reporting citing Lloyd’s List Intelligence, and Saudi Red Sea oil loadings fell from 3.8 million barrels per day to 2.2 million barrels per day in August.

Positions on Mayun and the adjacent Yemeni coast could shorten the distance from which Houthi forces surveil or attack ships. That risk can raise security, insurance and freight costs even if traffic continues. Saudi Arabia has not specified when the pipeline will restart, the extent of physical damage, or the volume of crude directly affected.