Ukraine plans to intensify strikes on Russian oil refineries

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an October 3 Reuters interview that Ukraine would intensify strikes on Russian oil refineries in response to Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. Ukraine was already striking refineries. The interview established an intention to increase those attacks; it did not establish that another refinery had been hit.

Zelenskyy identified refineries as a priority because he said they help finance Russia’s war. He also said Ukraine would not deliberately target civilians. His pledge states Ukraine’s intended policy, without independently verifying the effects of individual strikes.

Russian attacks and warnings

Russian attacks forced the full or partial closure of three of Kyiv’s six road bridges on October 2, according to Mayor Vitalii Klitschko, as reported by the Associated Press. The closures show a documented disruption to transport in the capital before Zelenskyy’s interview. They do not establish what targets Russian forces intended to hit.

On October 3, Russia’s Foreign Ministry said strikes on Kyiv and other cities would continue. It described the strikes as retaliation for Ukrainian attacks and urged foreign nationals, including diplomats, not to remain in Ukraine. On October 4, Russia’s Defence Ministry said it would intensify attacks on military facilities, defence-industry sites and related infrastructure. Those statements do not independently establish the targets of individual attacks or whether the announced intensification will occur.

Zelenskyy said Ukrainian intelligence had obtained documents describing a new Russian doctrine for attacks on a wider range of civilian targets. Reuters did not publish or independently authenticate the documents. Russia says its strikes target military sites and denies deliberately targeting civilians. The claimed doctrine remains unverified in the reporting supplied here.

Refining and diesel exposure

Russia’s refining sector was under pressure before Zelenskyy’s announcement. In September, the International Energy Agency estimated that Russia had about 6.5 million barrels per day of installed refining capacity. It put June 2026 refinery throughput at 3.8 million barrels per day, roughly 30% below a year earlier, and diesel production nearly 30% below 2025 levels. The agency linked earlier Ukrainian attacks to reduced refining and diesel output.

Further sustained refinery damage could constrain Russian fuel availability and product exports. Zelenskyy’s announcement alone provides no basis for calculating an additional loss: the next targets, the success of any attacks and the duration of any shutdowns are unknown. The IEA’s figures describe conditions before the announced increase in strikes.

The potential effects extend to diesel markets beyond Russia. In its September oil market report, the IEA estimated that combined net diesel and gasoil exports from Russia and Gulf countries in August were 1.6 million barrels per day below February levels. It attributed the squeeze to Russian refining disruption and major Middle Eastern supply disruption. A future price change therefore could not be assigned to Ukrainian refinery strikes alone.

Ceasefire remains unresolved

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said Kyiv was willing to accept a reciprocal ceasefire covering strikes on energy infrastructure and Black Sea shipping. AP reported that no such agreement had been reached by October 2. The opposing announcements leave open whether attacks on refineries and Ukrainian infrastructure will increase, and whether the parties will agree to a halt to energy-infrastructure strikes.