WTO raises 2026 goods-trade forecast and cuts services outlook

The World Trade Organization raised its forecast for 2026 world merchandise-trade volume growth to 3.9% on October 8, up from its March baseline of 1.9%. Its economists cited stronger-than-expected first-half trade, demand for goods used in artificial intelligence, and supply-chain adjustments to Middle East disruptions. In the same forecast update, the WTO cut its projection for commercial-services trade volume growth to 3.3% from 4.8%. Both full-year figures remain forecasts.

Goods trade and AI-related demand

WTO economists estimate that merchandise-trade volume grew 3.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2026. The US-dollar value of merchandise trade rose 15% over the same period. The measures describe different changes: volume tracks the quantity of trade, while dollar value also reflects prices. The first-half volume estimate supports the higher full-year forecast, though it does not establish the final 2026 result.

AI-enabling goods, including semiconductors and servers, accounted for 47% of the year-on-year growth in the **value** of world merchandise trade in the first half, according to the WTO. The value of trade in those goods rose 67%. The 47% contribution cannot be applied to growth in trade volume. The WTO cites AI demand as one factor behind its forecast upgrade, alongside stronger observed trade and adjustments to disruption.

The WTO says trade in AI-enabling goods is highly concentrated geographically. Its aggregate goods forecast therefore does not describe a uniform increase across regions. It projects merchandise-export growth of 9.9% in Asia in 2026 and a 17.2% contraction in the Middle East.

Energy supplies and services

The WTO estimates that Middle East crude-oil exports fell roughly 24% in the first half of 2026 and liquefied-natural-gas exports fell roughly 47%. Increased shipments from other suppliers limited the corresponding declines in global exports to about 6% for crude oil and 1% for liquefied natural gas. That substitution helps explain how global goods trade continued to grow despite steep declines in exports from the region.

The services revision reflects a different exposure to the conflict. The WTO identifies transport and international travel as particularly vulnerable and cites weaker prospects for both in cutting its 2026 commercial-services trade volume forecast by 1.5 percentage points. Disrupted routes and higher transport costs affect services even where alternative suppliers can help sustain goods shipments.

Outlook and risks

The WTO now projects merchandise-trade volume growth of 4.1% in 2027, compared with 2.6% in its March baseline. It projects commercial-services trade volume growth of 6.4% that year. The WTO says its 2027 projections depend on a timely resolution of the Middle East conflict.

Its October executive summary also identifies a slowdown or reversal in AI investment as a risk to goods trade. Persistent fuel and fertilizer bottlenecks could raise costs and weaken demand. Those risks leave the scale and geographic distribution of the projected gains uncertain.