Yemeni offensive near Bab el-Mandeb leaves territorial control disputed

Coastal advance and disputed control

Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched an offensive near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 5. The operation involved the National Shield Forces and Giants Brigades, supported by airstrikes, according to Yemen’s government news agency. The extent of their gains remains unverified.

Government military spokesman Col. Majed al-Nuzayli said the forces had taken Dhubab Airport and secured positions beside the strait. The government also claimed control of Bab el-Mandeb. Those statements describe its account of the battlefield; they do not establish which forces now hold the coast.

Reuters reported that government sources placed advancing forces near Mocha, while the Defence Ministry said the city had fallen. The Houthis rejected the government’s account. Reuters said it could not independently verify the extent of the gains, leaving control of Dhubab, Mocha and the coastal road between them unresolved.

Shipping and energy exposure

Positions beside Bab el-Mandeb matter because the strait carries substantial oil traffic. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated that 8.1 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products traversed it in the second quarter of 2026, up from 5.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2025. Both estimates predate the offensive.

Holding coastal positions could reduce Houthi control of the adjacent shore. Reuters noted that the Houthis could still target vessels with drones from elsewhere. The reported advance therefore does not establish that ships can pass safely, and the available figures do not show whether October transit volumes or routes have changed.

The route had already faced disruption before the offensive. In its September oil-market outlook, the EIA said attacks affecting Saudi exports through Bab el-Mandeb had helped cut August exports from Yanbu by about half relative to July, citing tanker-tracking estimates. No change in exports has been attributed specifically to the October 5 operation.

The immediate shipping question depends on developments that remain unconfirmed: which forces hold the coastal positions and whether attacks on vessels continue. The dossier contains no post-offensive measure of strait traffic, insurance costs or shipping diversions.

Attacks in Saudi Arabia and a deployment decision

Saudi Arabia’s General Authority of Civil Aviation said on October 6 that attacks the previous evening damaged airports in Jizan and Najran and lightly injured three people, according to the Associated Press. The authority did not identify who carried out the attacks.

Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree claimed attacks on Saudi airports, an oil refinery at Rabigh and military sites. Those claims extend beyond the damage Saudi authorities confirmed. AP reported that it could not confirm a separately claimed October 6 strike on Abha airport.

Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Türkiye said on October 5 that they had decided to take measures to provide agreed military forces and capabilities for rapid deployment in Saudi Arabia under their joint-defence agreement. Their statement specified neither force numbers nor a deployment timetable. The scale of any resulting deployment remains unknown.